It was a bad week to back obvious favorites last week. But survivor pools were hit the hardest, with eliminated contestants possibly still shouting obscenities aimed at the Cardinals for imploding down the stretch against the Titans.
Over at the popular Circa survivor contest, 7,758 customers kissed their $1,000-entries goodbye, leaving only 4,646 survivors heading into Week 6.
Most of the eliminated entries sided with the Cardinals (3,152) and Rams (3,524), who fell to the injury-depleted 49ers during. There were also 756 entries that picked the Bills, who fell to the Patriots during .
“I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a bigger collapse after the Cardinals led 21–6,” says Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa. “Certainly not during the years that we’ve had the survivor [contest].”
Bettors might still be mad at the Cardinals because the Circa sportsbook hasn’t seen much action on Jonathan Gannon’s team this week. Not even the sharps are taking the seven points Arizona is being spotted for Sunday’s road game against the red-hot Colts.
“It’s all Colts,” Palm says. “And I don’t know if it’s an overreaction, but it’s really tough emotionally to come back from that for the Cardinals. … Plus, the Colts are really good. The Colts take advantage of every mistake you make.”
With more insight from Palm, here’s everything you need to know about the NFL Week 6 games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 6
The public and the sharps have traded places for the Seahawks’ intriguing matchup in Jacksonville. For the first month of the season, the sharps repeatedly backed Seattle, but now it’s the public that’s jumping on the Seahawks’ bandwagon.
On Wednesday, Palm said most of the money was on the Seahawks when they were 1.5-point underdogs. That game is now a pick’em, which could entice the sharps to back the Jaguars, who just beat the 49ers and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.
“A decent amount of public support on Seattle,” Palm says. “That’s one side you might have thought, long trip for the Seahawks, going across the country and maybe you’ll see the Jaguars go up to -2.5 or -3, but no, it’s really remained at -1 or -1.5.”
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 6
Speaking of Circa’s survivor contest, Palm estimated that at least half of the remaining entries will pick the Packers to beat the Bengals.
He’s also anticipating the public laying the 14 points, with the Packers coming off a bye week and hosting the reeling Bengals, who have been crushed by the Vikings, Broncos and Lions the past three weeks. It appears bettors haven’t learned their lesson after several underdogs covered last week.
“The public has been all over the Packers,” Palm says.
Odds Movement NFL Week 6
It’s a bit surprising that the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites at home against the mighty Lions, winners of four straight.
If you’re planning on betting on the Lions here, it’s probably best to do it well before Sunday’s kick off because Palm expects this line to essentially become a pick’em. But maybe it’s best to stay away from this one because the Chiefs badly need this game and could deliver one of their vintage performances.
As for another game with potential line movement, Palm said the Rams, who are laying 7.5 points in Baltimore, could be a bigger favorite before the end of the week. Lamar Jackson likely will miss his second consecutive game due to a hamstring injury.
“How much we had to downgrade the Ravens is amazing,” Palm says. “The line has moved 11 points the past two weeks without Lamar. … I would keep an eye on that line because I think it’ll continue to go toward the Rams.”
Big Winner From Last Week
One bettor had a memorable Sunday at the Caesars Sportsbook. This person, who may or may not have had Biff’s almanac, won three six-figure bets, placing $316,000 on the Vikings (-3.5) vs. the Browns, $300,000 on the Cowboys (moneyline -100) vs. the Jets and $330,000 on the Titans (+7.5) vs. the Cardinals.
I always say if you bet all favorites you will likely get burned. This grand winner from Week 5 gained good juju for backing the struggling Titans, who pulled off the miraculous comeback win in Arizona.
Manzano’s NFL Week 6 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Seahawks
Maybe this trend ended after the Seahawks’ defense was exposed by Baker Mayfield last week. But the analytics community has been enamored with Mike Macdonald’s overrated defense.
This is a matchup of two surprising teams, but the home team isn't even laying the standard three points, signaling that the Seahawks are still getting plenty of support. It’s time to pay more attention to the Jaguars, who just beat the 49ers and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.
Enticing Bet: 49ers (+3) at Buccaneers
With 10 days of rest, the 49ers could be getting back some key players from injury before this showdown in Tampa Bay. And if they don’t, well, there’s a large sample size to know the injury-ravaged Niners will at least keep it close and so will the Buccaneers regardless of who’s on the field.
Tampa Bay was impressive in beating Seattle and Atlanta by three points this season. But also kept it close vs. the struggling Texans and Jets, beating those two teams by a combined three points.
Moneyline Dog: Falcons (+185) vs. Bills
The Falcons are my underdog pick of the week. They’re coming off a bye week and now will get the not-so-mighty Bills at home.
Look, Buffalo will likely be a top seed in the playoffs again, but this defense isn’t very good. Drake Maye, Tua Tagovailoa and even Spencer Rattler have had success against this suspect defense the past three weeks. Don’t be surprised if Michael Penix Jr. does the same.
SuperDog: Bengals (+14) at Packers
This line is way too high for the Packers. I get Green Bay is at home, but Jordan Love’s offense is not on the same level as Jared Goff’s offense with the Lions, who covered the -10.5 in Cincinnati last week.
Oh, and the Packers will get to face new Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco, who already beat Green Bay earlier this season with Cleveland. Expect the desperate Bengals to keep this one close.
Not So Risky: Cowboys (-3) at Panthers
The Panthers are streaky as hell. They’re either getting blown out or dropping 30 consecutive points on the Falcons and another 20 unanswered points to rally against the Dolphins last week.
But this Cowboys offense is good enough to pull away from the hard-to-explain Panthers. I can’t see Bryce Young keeping pace vs. Dak Prescott’s underrated offense.
Stay Away: Titans (+3.5) at Raiders
There’s no chance I’m backing the Raiders after how poorly they played in Indianapolis. It’s head-scratching that they’re laying this much against any team. Yes, the Titans are bad, but they’re on cloud nine right now after beating the Cardinals.
On the flip side, there’s zero chance I put money on the Titans this year.
Parlay: Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Seahawks; Lions (+2.5) at Chiefs; Bears (+4.5) at Commanders
Again, the Jaguars need more respect. This Lions’ line seems a bit fishy because this should be more of a pick’em, so maybe Vegas knows something here. Still, I’ll take a chance on a red-hot Detroit team in Kansas City. And I see the Bears keeping it close against the Commanders. Revenge must be on Caleb Williams’s mind after Jayden Daniels’s walk-off Hail Mary last season.
Favorite Fave: Colts (-7) vs. Cardinals
I’m betting that the Cardinals will spiral out of control after last week’s self-destruction against the Titans. The Colts have crushed the losing teams, beating the Raiders, Titans and Dolphins by a combined 80 points.
Best Over/Under Total: Chargers-Dolphins (under 44.5, -118)
Miami doesn’t have many strengths, but the team does at least have productive pass rushers. I can see the Dolphins putting a lot of pressure on Justin Herbert’s depleted offensive line.
On the other side, Tagovailoa has resorted to feeding Darren Waller, a strong indication that they’re struggling to adjust without Tyreek Hill.
