So, let’s get this straight. There is a contest combining the best sport in the world – football – with the opportunity to win ‘Free’ money?!
Sign me up!
I’m sure you are asking, so “What do I need to do to win?”
The Week 2 contest finds an intriguing card with seven of the 10 home teams listed as favorites. Let’s take a quick look at some of the most intriguing trends involving Sunday’s slate.
The Lions (-2.5) are favored for the first time since 2020. Their opponent, the Commanders, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.
Despite being 0-4 straight-up (SU) and ATS against the Saints as the starting quarterback of the Buccaneers, Tom Brady is listed as a 2.5-point road favorite heading into the Caesars Superdome.
The Jaguars, who are 7-0 both SU and ATS in their last seven home games against the Colts are not getting any respect and listed as 4.5-point home underdogs.
So, which games should you pick?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help with our best bet according to the lines offered in the Perfect 10 contest.
Let’s get right down to business!
The reigning Super Bowl Champs had an extra three days in between games to shake off the embarrassing loss in Week 1. The Falcons, meanwhile, just suffered another epic fourth-quarter collapse. How epic? The Falcons are now 5-3 in games when winning by 15 points in the final quarter, while the rest of the league is 245-2-1. Since 2018, the Rams have an incredible 8-2 ATS record when favored by 9.5 points or more at home. Look for the defending champs to rebound in a major way, while the Falcons continue to flail around the field like a wounded bird.
Michael Fabiano: Lions -2.5
Maybe it’s the influence, but I’m going with the Lions -2.5 against the Commanders. While Detroit did lose to the Eagles last week, they still covered with the help of the hook and are now 5-0 ATS over their last five games at Ford Field.
Frank Taddeo: Raiders -4.5
The Cardinals gave up a league-high 44 points last week and in Week 2 they will face Davante Adams and the high-powered Raiders offense. After being blown out last week by the Chiefs, the Cardinals are now 1-6 ATS over their last seven games dating back to last season. Allegiant Stadium will be rocking in the Raiders’ home opener, which will help boost a bounce-back effort against an Arizona offense that just surrendered close to 500 yards to the Chiefs.
Will Laws: Bucs -2.5
The Saints needed a furious 16-point, fourth-quarter comeback to escape by one point against Atlanta, the favorite to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. Even knowing the Saints are 4–1 against the Buccaneers during their Brady era, I don’t see Jameis Winston and his balky back keeping New Orleans within a field goal of Tampa Bay after the latter’s dismantling of the Cowboys. The Bucs will be looking to make clear that they’re still the team to beat in the NFC South.
The Jaguars allowed 313 yards and 4 touchdowns to Carson Wentz last week, and lost by six. They’re at home this week, which should give them a slight boost but the Colts will also be looking to make a statement win after a lackluster tie with the Texans. Shaq Leonard practiced in full Thursday and could be back Sunday, while Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman should be on full display.
Craig Ellenport: Raiders -4.5
There will be a sense of urgency for both of these 0-1 teams, but more so for the Raiders because of the killer division they’re in. Add in that it’s the Raiders’ home opener and they’re facing a defense that gave up 44 points and a bazillion yards last week. Granted that was against Patrick Mahomes, but the Derek Carr-Davante Adams connection should do enough here for a comfortable cover.
Shawn Childs: Lions – 2.5
After riding the Lions in Week 1, I'm going back to the well. Their defense struggled to contain Jalen Hurts in the run game, but they won't be a problem against Carson Wentz. I like the upside of their offense, and they should even their record this week.
Matt Ehalt: Rams -9.5
I whiffed on the Saints this week but I’m betting against the Falcons again. The Rams, after being embarrassed at home, should be ready to rebound in a big way. While I don’t love that I have to lay 9.5 points, the Rams should get back on track offensively in this game and win rather comfortably. Look for Allen Robinson to get involved, and perhaps even Cam Akers will finish with more than zero yards.
Matt De Lima: Seahawks +8.5
Apologies to my fellow Niners fans, but I'm picking against my team for the second straight week. I'm happy to be wrong but giving the Seahawks +8.5 points feels like easy money after San Francisco did next to nothing except embarrass themselves against the woeful Bears in Week 1. I expect the 49ers' defensive front to really get after Geno Smith, but he'll hold it down for Seattle in a very tightly-contested loss to cover the spread.
Kyle Wood: Raiders -4.5
Despite their turnover issues, the Raiders were positioned late against the Chargers to mount a game-winning drive. Meanwhile, the Cardinals looked helpless against the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. Arizona's defense yielded close to 500 yards and Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray had no counter. The Derek Carr-Davante Adams combination kept Las Vegas afloat against L.A. and that duo should lift the team to victory as long as Carr takes better care of the football.
Doug Vazquez: Bucs -2.5
I am bucking the trends and taking the Buccaneers to cover the 2.5 on the road against the Saints. Tom Brady has yet to beat New Orleans since joining Tampa Bay in 2020. While the Bucs did not quite look like Super Bowl material against Dallas in Week 1, they took care of business and secured a road win to open the season. I do not see a world where Brady doesn’t use the added motivation of four straight losses to come out firing on all cylinders and put a beating on the Saints, who barely escaped with a win in Week 1 against the lowly Falcons.
Connor Lamb: Miami Dolphins +3.5
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel will scheme multiple defensive looks to help contain Lamar Jackson, and critical season-ending injuries to Ravens left tackle Ja'Wuan James and cornerback undefined open exploitable holes on both sides of the ball. Miami remains consistently undervalued in Vegas since drafting Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 with a league-best 21-12-1 ATS record. The half-point hook has you covered on a Justin Tucker game-winning field goal, so take the Dolphins +3.5 with confidence in your Perfect 10 slate.
Conor Orr: Texans +10.5
The Texans getting 10.5 against the Broncos is a steal. While I don’t think Denver loses this game, the Broncos showed us in Week 1 that they’re still a work in progress, especially when it comes to quarterback Russell Wilson settling into a new location. They’re not a team that’s quite ready to thump anyone yet. Houston has speed off the edge. Derek Stingley is only going to get better after an okay debut. The Texans can score early and a capable, conservative defensive effort keeps the lid on Wilson and his backfield theatrics.
